What is the demand for coffee on the European market?

Italy has a strong coffee-roasting industry

Italy is Europe's second-largest importer of green coffee beans. In 2023, Italian imports of green coffee beans reached 646 thousand tonnes. Italian imports increased at an average yearly rate of 1.5% between 2019 and 2023.

More than 96% of all Italian imports are sourced directly from coffee-producing countries. The main supplier of green coffee to Italy is Brazil (198 thousand tonnes), followed by Vietnam (150 thousand tonnes) and Uganda (98 thousand tonnes). 

To see the exports from your country to Italy, hover your mouse cursor or pointer over the countries displayed in blue in Figure 8. 

Source: Eurostat

Italy generally imports a relatively large share of Robusta varieties, which are used as a base for espresso blends. In the Italian market, price is more important than it is in many other European markets. Italians also favour a darker roast. Quality is thus less important in the Italian market.

Italy has the third-largest consumer market in Europe

With almost 60 million citizens, Italy has a large consumer market. In 2022, Italians consumed a total of 327 thousand tonnes of coffee. This makes Italy one of the leading coffee-consuming countries within the EU27, along with Germany and France. 

Italy has one of the largest coffee-roasting industries in Europe

Italy is home to many small-scale roasters. Some of them are family-owned businesses. The country also hosts some of the world’s largest roasters, including Lavazza, Massimo Zanetti BG and illycaffè. Most of the production of Italian roasters is for the domestic market. Italian roasters also export substantial amounts of coffee blends to destinations throughout Europe and the United States.

The forecast for the Italian coffee market is positive

Italy’s import volume is expected to remain relatively stable in the coming years.

The Italian demand for certification is still small but growing

Third-party certification is very limited in Italy. The demand for organic coffee in Italy is about 1.0% of the total market volume. However, it is a growing market. Imports of organic coffee were growing a few years ago, until reaching a peak of 8,774 tonnes in 2020. Between 2021 and 2023, organic imports showed a yearly average decline of almost 10%, based on TRACES data. 

In 2022, only 759 tonnes (0.32% of the total market) of all coffee sold had Fairtrade certification. Rainforest Alliance certification is more common, accounting for 6.5 thousand tonnes in 2023. 

Some Italian buyers are leading the way in the Italian coffee market. Kimbo sources only coffees with Rainforest Alliance certification. Coop, a large retailer, sells roasted coffee products certified by the main certification standards (such as Fairtrade). Alce Nero is another brand that sells mostly Fairtrade-certified coffee. The company is also a leading brand in organic coffee. With about 550 shops, IN’s is a large discount retailer. The company has increased its share of Fairtrade coffee in recent years, and it is currently selling large volumes. The illycaffè company is B Corp certified.

The Italian market for specialty coffee is expected to slowly take off

Like other Mediterranean markets, the Italian specialty coffee market is still small. In 2021, Italy was home to only 79 specialty coffee cafés, out of more than 50 thousand cafés. This was less than 0.2% of all cafés.

In 2021, the Specialty Coffee Association in Italy launched the Coffee Boom event to promote specialty coffee and boost end-consumer recognition and appreciation of its quality. Despite being a small niche market, the gradual spread of specialised coffee roasters and shops may create interesting opportunities for high-quality coffees with special origins and unique stories.

The Italian demand for specialty coffee is expected to rise in the near future, following Western European countries. This predicted increase is driven partly by large roasters launching their own specialty coffee brands. One example is Lavazza, which founded a specialty brand known as 1895. Examples of specialty coffee roasters in Italy include Nero Scuro, Pierre Café and Cafezal Specialty Coffee.

For more information, read our study on the European market for specialty coffee. 

Belgium is a trade hub for coffee in Europe

Belgium is one of the main coffee-trade hubs in Europe. More than 64% of its imports are re-exported to other European countries. In 2023, this amounted to re-exports of 176 thousand tonnes of green coffee. This makes Belgium the largest re-exporter in Europe.

Belgium is Europe’s third-largest importer of green coffee. Between 2018 and 2022, the country’s imports grew at a yearly rate of 6.4%. In 2023, however, imports decreased by 25%, which is far more than the European average decrease of 9.7%. Due to high coffee prices, European companies have used their enormous stocks to fulfil the demand. Because Belgium is an important trade hub, the Belgian trade strongly reflects the drop in European demand, resulting in lower imports by Belgian traders.  

The expectation is that Belgian imports will grow in the following years. With European companies having very low stocks, imports will have to grow to meet demand. As one of Europe’s most important trade hubs, we assume this will be reflected in the import levels.

Belgium’s primary export destinations are its direct neighbours. France was the main destination, with 65 thousand tonnes, steadily increasing in recent years, followed by the Netherlands, with 39 thousand tonnes in 2023. In that year, exports to the Netherlands were almost 60% less than they had been in 2022, when they amounted to 96 thousand tonnes. 

The largest share (94%) of Belgium’s green-coffee imports were sourced directly from producing countries in 2023, amounting to 274 thousand tonnes. Brazil was the largest supplier of green coffee to Belgium, with 79 thousand tonnes in 2023. This was a 41% decline from 2022. Vietnam ranked second, supplying 58 thousand tonnes of green coffee (a 14% decline). Belgium’s third-largest export partner is Honduras, with 28 thousand tonnes (only 3% less than in 2022). 

To see the exports from your country to Belgium, hover your mouse cursor or pointer over the countries displayed in blue in Figure 9. 

Source: Eurostat

Belgium is home to a few very large ports

Belgium’s important role as an importer and re-exporter of coffee is due largely to storage capacity at the Port of Antwerp. This is the largest storage site for coffee in the world, with space for more than 250 thousand tonnes of coffee at a time. The Port of Zeebrugge is another important entry point for coffee. It offers large temperature-controlled storage facilities. It is also a distribution platform for green coffee throughout Europe, with transports by rail, road and sea. 

Supermarkets lead the way to certification in the Belgian consumer market

People are increasingly wanting to buy coffee from companies that treat farmers fairly, take care of the environment and help farmers make a good living. Certifications like Rainforest Alliance and Fairtrade help people find these kinds of companies. Rainforest Alliance/UTZ is the leading sustainability label in major Belgian supermarkets. Lidl, Delhaize and ALDI all carry UTZ-certified coffees. Supermarket chains are increasingly committing to certification, including for their own private label brands. 

The higher demand for ethical sourcing is also an important driver of the growing Belgian retail market. Other drivers include the increasing demand for single-serve coffee and premium and specialty coffees. 

Spain hosts a large out-of-home coffee market

In 2023, Spain’s imports of green coffee beans reached 306 thousand tonnes. The country’s imports increased at an average yearly rate of 4.2% between 2018 and 2022. In 2023, however, it declined by 11.8%. 

More than 81% of all Spanish imports are sourced directly from coffee-producing countries. The main supplier of green coffee to Spain is Vietnam (124 thousand tonnes), followed by Brazil (55 thousand tonnes). Spain also sources a large amount of green coffee from Germany (32 thousand tonnes) and Belgium (17 thousand tonnes).  

To see the exports from your country to Spain, hover your mouse cursor or pointer over the countries in displayed blue in Figure 10.

Supracafé is one of the largest Spanish buyers. About one quarter of the company’s coffee is certified. 

Source: Eurostat

Spanish consumers are social consumers

Spanish consumers drink an average of three kilograms of coffee each year. Given their preference for espresso-based coffees, Spain has a relatively large market for Robusta beans. With 260,000 coffee houses, Spain has the largest coffee-house density per citizen. For most Spanish consumers, drinking coffee is more about the social experience than it is about consuming high-caffeine Robusta coffees. The specialty coffee market is still very small, but growing.

Spain has a very high demand for decaffeinated coffee

Spain is the largest European market for decaffeinated coffee. In 2023, imports amounted to 28 thousand tonnes. This far exceeded the second-largest importer, Switzerland (10 thousand tonnes). Spaniards tend to dine late at night. The increased consciousness of caffeine’s effects on sleep quality is fostering the demand for decaffeinated coffee. 

Of all decaffeinated coffee imported into Spain, 61% (17 thousand tonnes) is sourced from Vietnam. Other large suppliers include re-exporters, such as Germany (9 thousand tonnes) and the Netherlands (1.4 thousand tonnes). The extent to which these re-exported coffees also originate from Vietnam is unclear. 

Spain imported 28.5 thousand tonnes of decaffeinated green coffee in 2023. This amounts to 10% of all green-coffee imports.

The Swiss love specialty coffee and source from producing countries

In 2023, imports of green coffee beans to Switzerland reached a volume of 192 thousand tonnes. Swiss imports increased at an average yearly rate of 4.7% between 2018 and 2022. In 2023, imports declined by 8.8%. 

Most (98.5%) of all Swiss imports are sourced directly from coffee-producing countries. The main suppliers of green coffee to Switzerland are Brazil (52 thousand tonnes), followed by Colombia (32 thousand tonnes) and Vietnam (17 thousand tonnes). Nestlé, the world’s largest coffee company, has very large production facilities in Switzerland.

To see the exports from your country to Switzerland, hover your mouse cursor or pointer over the countries displayed in blue in Figure 11. 

Source: ITC Trademap

Greater demand for specialty coffee is driving growth

Swiss consumers drink an average of 3.2 kilograms of coffee each year. Domestic demand for mainstream quality coffees has stagnated, whilst the demand for high-quality coffees has grown. Swiss consumers also have a high demand for decaffeinated coffee and espressos. 

If you aim to broaden your network in the Swiss specialty-coffee sector, there are many opportunities:

• Specialty Coffee Association Switzerland (SCAS) organises specific coffee events, seminars and courses.
• The Swiss Coffee Festival is an example of one such event. It is aimed specifically at Swiss-German speakers.
• The Swiss Coffee Connection is the main event for the French-speaking Swiss. There are also several private coffee academies authorised by SCAS to promote knowledge about specialty coffees. One example is the Académie du Café. 

One important Swiss organisation is the Swiss Coffee Trade Association (SCTA). Its members handle a large share of the global coffee trade. This includes both commercial and specialty coffee. 

The higher demand for specialty coffee and increased demand for ethical sourcing are drivers of the growth in Switzerland’s coffee market. The Swiss coffee market is expected to grow slowly in value, but not in volume. 

The United Kingdom is Europe’s largest specialty-coffee market

In 2023, the United Kingdom imported more than 163 thousand tonnes of green coffee from producing countries. 

This was a decline of 8% compared to the previous year. British imports from producing countries 

are more volatile than those from other European countries. In previous years, imports from producing 

countries fluctuated between 150 thousand tonnes (2020) and 180 thousand tonnes (2019). This is due largely to the United Kingdom leaving the European Union in 2020 (Brexit). 

The United Kingdom imports most of its coffee from Brazil (70 thousand tonnes), followed by Vietnam (40 thousand tonnes) and Colombia (11 thousand tonnes). 

Source: ITC Trademap

The United Kingdom has a large specialty-coffee market

According to experts, the United Kingdom is Europe’s largest market for specialty coffees. It has grown significantly in recent years, as reflected in the growing number of coffee shops. Of all coffee served in coffee shops, only 23% is specialty coffee.

The rising demand for specialty coffee extends beyond coffee shops to offices and homes. This is driven by a consumer preference for quality over quantity, as well as by the rise of remote work. Offering specialty coffee in the workplace is seen as a valuable employee benefit, which could potentially boost productivity and retention. 

3. Which products from developing countries have most potential on the European market?

The coffee market is highly competitive, and it is transforming slowly. Opportunities in the high-end market are growing, as European consumers are increasingly willing to pay more for high-quality coffees. Although the market for certified coffee is no longer growing, it still offers opportunities for many exporters. Rising coffee prices and expected shortages are leading producers to seek solutions to keep their coffee affordable.

Growing demand for specialty coffee

Specialty coffee is coffee of very high quality. According to the most common definition, used by the Specialty Coffee Association (SCA), specialty coffees are those with cupping scores of 80 and higher. 

Europe has the highest demand for specialty coffee globally, with a global market share is 46%. The global market is expected to grow. Drivers of this trend include increased spending power and the willingness of consumers to engage with their products. Many European consumers want to know the origin story of their coffee, as well as where it comes from and how it was produced. 

Although demand for specialty coffee is growing in all European markets, this segment is the largest in Northwestern Europe. Young consumers (18–24 years) are especially interested in specialty coffee, and interest in the age group 25–39 years is expanding rapidly. This age group tends to have higher income levels and greater awareness about sustainable consumption. The increasing interest in specialty coffee is visible in the growing number of coffee bars and chains, small roasters, local brands and an increasing number of well-trained baristas. 

No official statistics available about how much specialty coffee is imported. The number of branded coffee chain outlets is an important indicator, however, as most branded coffee chains sell specialty coffee. In 2024, the market for branded coffee shops grew by 3.3%, despite the overall decline in imports of green coffee. Europe’s leading brands are McCafé (3,326 stores), Starbucks (3,321 stores) and Costa Coffee (3,102 stores). Other examples include Caffè Nero, Pret a Manger, illycaffè, and Espresso House. Most of these brands sell high-quality coffees, although they are generally not rated by the SCA. In 2024, Europe was home to 45,008 outlets, as compared to 40,675 in 2021. The United Kingdom (10,199) and Germany (6,533) have the most outlets.

Another indicator of interest is the popularity of ‘specialty coffee’ as a search term on Google. Figure 13 shows the growing use of the keyword ‘specialty coffee’ in the six European countries that import the most green coffee. Although Spain has most search queries, expert interviews indicate that the United Kingdom is still the main market. One explanation for this difference could be that specialty coffee has become normalised within the British coffee sector. 

Source: Google Trends

The European market for certified coffee is stagnating

Europe is the largest market for certified coffee in the world. Sustainability certification schemes are important to consumers and, therefore, to roasters and traders. The main independent certification schemes in the coffee consumer market are Fairtrade, Organic and Rainforest Alliance. 

Globally, the amount of certified coffee produced is much higher than the amount of certified coffee sold. This means that a large share of all certified coffee is sold without the premiums for certification. 

The gap between the percentage sold and produced differs widely by certificate. The gap is the largest for Fairtrade-certified coffee, where less than one third of the coffee produced with the certification is sold as such. Experts have also found wide regional variations in this gap. For example, it is narrower in Latin American countries and wider in African countries. The gap is the smallest for C.A.F.E. Practices verification (the Starbucks corporate certification programme). About two thirds of all C.A.F.E.-certified production is sold as such, as compared to about half for Rainforest Alliance. You should therefore check carefully with your buyers to learn whether they are willing to buy your certified produce. 

Source: based on Coffee Barometer 2023

Rainforest Alliance-certified coffee is stagnating

Between 2017 and 2021, Rainforest Alliance-certified Arabica sales increased by an average of 11% a year. Currently, however, Rainforest Alliance sales are stagnating. In 2023, European imports of Rainforest Alliance-certified coffee decreased by 11.4%. This is comparable to the overall decline in Rainforest Alliance sales (-11%) and in European green-coffee imports (-9.7%). Europe’s largest importers of Rainforest Alliance-certified coffee are Switzerland (249 thousand tonnes), Germany (132 thousand tonnes) and the Netherlands (95 thousand tonnes). 

Nespresso is one popular, well-known European coffee brand that carries the Rainforest Alliance certification label. Other large European retailers that sell Rainforest Alliance-certified coffees include the German Kaufland, Lidl and REWE chains, the British ASDA, and other large roasters (such as Lavazza).

Demand for organic-certified coffee has stagnated

Between 2019 and 2021, demand for organic-certified coffee increased by 5.4% per year. Between 2021 and 2023, however, demand decreased by 1%. In 2023, organic imports declined by 9%. This is comparable to the overall European trend for green-coffee imports (-9.7%).

Europe’s main markets for organic coffee are Germany (58 thousand tonnes), Belgium (30 thousand tonnes), Sweden (13 thousand tonnes) and France (13 thousand tonnes).

Germany, the United Kingdom and France are important Fairtrade markets

No statistics are available on Fairtrade-certified coffee imports by Europe as a region. It is clear, however, that the global production of Fairtrade-certified coffee has declined, from 923 thousand tonnes in 2021 to 707 thousand tonnes in 2022. This was partly due to a reduction in global production. The amount of land used to produce Fairtrade-certified coffee has decreased as well, from 1153 thousand hectares in 2021 to 1019 hectares in 2022. 

Germany is the largest market for Fairtrade-certified coffee, followed by the United Kingdom, the United States, Canada and France. In 2021, more than 24 thousand tonnes of Fairtrade coffee were sold in Germany, representing 5% of the total German coffee market. Fairtrade coffee sales increased at an average yearly rate of 7.4% in volume between 2017 and 2021, reaching a value of almost €541 million in 2021. In 2023, Fairtrade coffee sales decreased by 3.6%. In the United Kingdom, 7% of all coffee is sold as Fairtrade. In France, Fairtrade coffee sales increased by an average of 12% per year between 2019 and 2023. During the same period, however, the market value decreased by 3% (as compared to the growth of 10% in overall market value). 

Higher quality Robusta coffee is likely to become more important

In 2023, Europe imported 942 thousand tonnes of green Robusta coffee. This accounted for 35.6% of the European market for green coffee. The demand varies widely by country. For example, in Spain, 59% of all coffee-bean imports were Robusta in 2021. The demand for Robusta is much smaller in Scandinavian countries.

Due to global shortages, the prices for Arabica and Robusta coffees are expected to increase. You can read more about this in the section on Global shortages shape the European coffee market. Prices for Robusta are lower than they are for Arabica. Robusta coffees are used primarily in lower-quality blends and soluble coffee. The demand for higher-quality Robustas is likely to increase as fewer Arabica beans become available. Coffee producers will want to keep their quality consistent, despite the unavailability of higher-quality Arabica beans.

The quality of coffee is determined partly by the post-harvest processing method. Dry processing is the most common method for Robusta beans. Currently, the post-harvest processing methods for Robusta beans are less developed. This is because they are generally used for the lower market segments, where quality is less important. For this reason, the demand for Robusta — which is processed by more advanced methods — is likely to increase. One example of a high-quality Robusta is India Craigmore Kattimuttu, which is sold for €21 per kilogram. 

Molgo Research carried out this study in partnership with Ethos Agriculture on behalf of CBI.

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